Alexander Chavez vs David Dvořák
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
David Dvořák61%
Alexander Chavez 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes David Dvořák a 61% favorite over Alexander Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1656 vs 1659), separated by just 3 points.
David Dvořák enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Chavez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, David Dvořák 77%.
David Dvořák carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record22-8-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
66"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Pitbull Martial Arts Center· 1659 avg Elo · 12 ratedTeamAll Sports Academy· 1666 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander ChavezDavid Dvořák