Alexander Chavez vs Roque Conceicao
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Roque Conceicao57%
Alexander Chavez 43%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Roque Conceicao a 57% favorite over Alexander Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Roque Conceicao holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1671 to 1656, a 15-point edge.
Roque Conceicao enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexander Chavez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Roque Conceicao 92%.
Roque Conceicao carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record12-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
66"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Pitbull Martial Arts Center· 1659 avg Elo · 12 ratedTeamCruel Top Team
What's at stake
Roque Conceicao is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alexander Chavez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1673
If they lose-15→ 1641
If they win+15→ 1686
If they lose-17→ 1654
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander ChavezRoque Conceicao