Alexander Chavez vs Roque Conceicao
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
9-0-0Record11-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'4"
-Reach-
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Pitbull Martial Arts Center· 1670 avg Elo · 11 ratedTeamCruel Top Team
What's at stake
Alexander Chavez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Roque Conceicao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1710
If they lose-27→ 1662
If they win+18→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander ChavezRoque Conceicao
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Chavez55%
Roque Conceicao 45%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Chavez a 55% favorite over Roque Conceicao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Alexander Chavez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1651, a 38-point edge.
Alexander Chavez enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Alexander Chavez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Roque Conceicao 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.