Roque Conceicao vs Alexander Chavez

DateOct 6, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Tuesday, October 6, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Tue 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Tue 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Wed 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Wed 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Wed 10:00 AM
Your time

Roque Conceicao11-3-0Roque Conceicao vs Alexander ChavezAlexander ChavezPenchia |9-0-0

Roque Conceicao11-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-3-0Record9-0-0

26Age25

5'4"Height5'6"

-Reach-

125 lbsWeight125 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Alexander ChavezPenchia9-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alexander Chavez owns a 38-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Roque Conceicao and Alexander Chavez across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Roque ConceicaoAlexander Chavez

Recent form

Roque ConceicaoW L W W W · +38 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Alexander ChavezW W W W W · +92 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Roque Conceicao1651+14 last move

Alexander Chavez1689+15 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

39%Roque Conceicao61%Alexander Chavez

Model favoriteAlexander Chavez

Elo baseline55% for Alexander Chavez

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Alexander ChavezStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Alexander Chavez leads the full model at 61%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 5 points.

Current Elo ratings1651 · 1689Alexander Chavez leads by 38 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1515 · 1509Roque Conceicao faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth14 · 9 fightsRoque Conceicao has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Roque ConceicaovsAlexander Chavez

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Roque ConceicaoKO/TKO leads 73% of wins

Alexander ChavezKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Roque ConceicaoAlexander Chavez

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.87

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 27%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.60

8Wins by knockout6

2Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision3

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision0

Roque Conceicao vs Alexander Chavez is a scheduled Flyweight fight on CONTENDER SERIES 2026 : WEEK 9. Roque Conceicao enters with a 11-3-0 record and Alexander Chavez enters with a 9-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.