Alexander Hernandez vs Austin Hubbard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record16-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach71"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Austin Hubbard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1701
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-8→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1624 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezAustin Hubbard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez80%
Austin Hubbard 20%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 80% favorite over Austin Hubbard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1604, a 113-point edge.
Austin Hubbard enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Austin Hubbard 44%.
Alexander Hernandez and Austin Hubbard share 1 common opponent: Kurt Holobaugh.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.