Alexander Hernandez vs Bill Algeo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72"Reach73"
148 lbsWeight146 lbs
Factory XTeamTeam Titan PA
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Bill Algeo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1726
If they lose-14→ 1702
If they win+14→ 1678
If they lose-10→ 1654
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezBill Algeo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez80%
Bill Algeo 20%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 80% favorite over Bill Algeo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1664, a 52-point edge.
Bill Algeo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Bill Algeo 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.