Alexander Hernandez vs Donald Cerrone
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record36-17-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
72"Reach73"
148 lbsWeight170 lbs
Factory XTeamBMF Ranch
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1728
If they lose-12→ 1704
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezDonald Cerrone
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez73%
Donald Cerrone 27%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 73% favorite over Donald Cerrone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1716 vs 1710), separated by just 6 points.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.
Alexander Hernandez and Donald Cerrone share 1 common opponent: Jim Miller.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.