Alexander Hernandez vs Drew Dober
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record29-15-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72"Reach70″
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Drew Dober carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1727
If they lose-13→ 1703
If they win+13→ 1714
If they lose-11→ 1690
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1656 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezDrew Dober
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez60%
Drew Dober 40%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 60% favorite over Drew Dober in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1701, a 15-point edge.
Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Drew Dober 76%.
Alexander Hernandez and Drew Dober share 1 common opponent: Renato Moicano.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.