Alexander Hernandez vs Francisco Trinaldo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record29-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight170 lbs
Factory XTeamBrazilian TKO· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alexander Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1744
If they lose-11→ 1720
If they win+11→ 1776
If they lose-13→ 1752
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezFrancisco Trinaldo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez71%
Francisco Trinaldo 29%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 71% favorite over Francisco Trinaldo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francisco Trinaldo's way (45%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1731, a 34-point edge.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.