Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez vs Francisco Trinaldo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record29-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight170 lbs
Factory XTeamBrazilian TKO

What's at stake

Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alexander Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander HernandezNow 1716
If they win+14→ 1730
If they lose-10→ 1706
Francisco TrinaldoNow 1766
If they win+10→ 1776
If they lose-14→ 1752

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.31
Sig. strikes / min
3.13
41%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.67
59%
Strike defense
61%
1.14
Takedown avg.
0.98
36%
Takedown accuracy
42%
73%
Takedown defense
60%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Alexander HernandezFrancisco Trinaldo
16501700175018002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
10 (34%)
2 (11%)
Submission
5 (17%)
8 (44%)
Decision
14 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Hernandez62%
Francisco Trinaldo 38%Elo baseline: 43%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 62% favorite over Francisco Trinaldo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francisco Trinaldo's way (43%).

Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1716, a 50-point edge.

Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.

Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.