Alexander Hernandez vs Jason Black
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record23-4-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"ReachTBD
148 lbsWeight169 lbs
Factory XTeamMiletich Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1728
If they lose-12→ 1704
If they win+12→ 1730
If they lose-12→ 1706
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezJason Black
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez66%
Jason Black 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 66% favorite over Jason Black in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Black's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1716 vs 1718), separated by just 2 points.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Jason Black 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.