Alexander Hernandez vs Kurt Holobaugh
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record21-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamGracie United
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kurt Holobaugh carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1726
If they lose-14→ 1702
If they win+14→ 1671
If they lose-10→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez79%
Kurt Holobaugh 21%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 79% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1657, a 59-point edge.
Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Kurt Holobaugh 81%.
Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh share 1 common opponent: Austin Hubbard.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.