Alexander Hernandez vs MarQuel Mederos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record12-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach69"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamFactory X
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1729
If they lose-12→ 1705
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezMarQuel Mederos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
MarQuel Mederos67%
Alexander Hernandez 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes MarQuel Mederos a 67% favorite over Alexander Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexander Hernandez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1717 vs 1714), separated by just 3 points.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, MarQuel Mederos 58%.
Alexander Hernandez and MarQuel Mederos share 1 common opponent: Austin Hubbard.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.