Alexander Hernandez vs Mike Breeden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record11-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight160 lbs
Factory XTeamMarathon MMA· 1665 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Mike Breeden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1701
If they win+21→ 1625
If they lose-11→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezMike Breeden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez85%
Mike Breeden 15%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 85% favorite over Mike Breeden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1604, a 113-point edge.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Mike Breeden 82%.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.