Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez vs Mike Breeden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record11-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight160 lbs
Factory XTeamMarathon MMA

What's at stake

Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Mike Breeden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander HernandezNow 1717
If they win+8→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1701
Mike BreedenNow 1604
If they win+21→ 1625
If they lose-11→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.31
Sig. strikes / min
5.75
41%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.28
59%
Strike defense
43%
1.14
Takedown avg.
0.98
36%
Takedown accuracy
30%
73%
Takedown defense
68%
0.09
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexander HernandezMike Breeden
160016501700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
9 (82%)
2 (11%)
Submission
0 (0%)
8 (44%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Hernandez78%
Mike Breeden 22%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 78% favorite over Mike Breeden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1604, a 113-point edge.

Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Mike Breeden 82%.

Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.