Alexander Hernandez vs Mochamed Machaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record17-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
72"Reach-
148 lbsWeight148 lbs
Factory XTeamGym 23· 1685 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1729
If they lose-12→ 1705
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezMochamed Machaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mochamed Machaev52%
Alexander Hernandez 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mochamed Machaev a 52% favorite over Alexander Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexander Hernandez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1717 vs 1714), separated by just 3 points.
Mochamed Machaev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Mochamed Machaev 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.