Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez vs Nazareno Malegarie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record29-6-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72"ReachTBD
148 lbsWeight145 lbs
Factory XTeamTeam Tavares

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander HernandezNow 1716
If they win+12→ 1728
If they lose-12→ 1704
Nazareno MalegarieNow 1717
If they win+12→ 1729
If they lose-12→ 1705

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.31
Sig. strikes / min
3.87
41%
Strike accuracy
35%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
59%
Strike defense
70%
1.14
Takedown avg.
1
36%
Takedown accuracy
33%
73%
Takedown defense
0%
0.09
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexander HernandezNazareno Malegarie
1650170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
5 (17%)
2 (11%)
Submission
17 (59%)
8 (44%)
Decision
7 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Hernandez70%
Nazareno Malegarie 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 70% favorite over Nazareno Malegarie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nazareno Malegarie's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1716 vs 1717), separated by just 1 points.

Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Nazareno Malegarie 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.