Alexander Hernandez vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach70,5"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamH2O MMA· 1649 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alexander Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1745
If they lose-10→ 1721
If they win+10→ 1804
If they lose-14→ 1780
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1656 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezOlivier Aubin-Mercier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Olivier Aubin-Mercier56%
Alexander Hernandez 44%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 56% favorite over Alexander Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1794 to 1731, a 63-point edge.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.