Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach70,5"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamH2O MMA

What's at stake

Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alexander Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander HernandezNow 1716
If they win+15→ 1731
If they lose-9→ 1707
Olivier Aubin-MercierNow 1794
If they win+9→ 1803
If they lose-15→ 1779

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.31
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
41%
Strike accuracy
51%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
59%
Strike defense
56%
1.14
Takedown avg.
2.36
36%
Takedown accuracy
34%
73%
Takedown defense
71%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Alexander HernandezOlivier Aubin-Mercier
165017001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
2 (11%)
Submission
8 (38%)
8 (44%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Olivier Aubin-Mercier57%
Alexander Hernandez 43%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 57% favorite over Alexander Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1794 to 1716, a 78-point edge.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.

Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.