Alexander Shabliy vs Alfie Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-4-0Record20-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Peresvet Fight TeamTeamLondon Shootfighters
What's at stake
Alexander Shabliy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Alfie Davis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1796
If they lose-15→ 1772
If they win+15→ 1713
If they lose-9→ 1689
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander ShabliyAlfie Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Shabliy63%
Alfie Davis 37%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Shabliy a 63% favorite over Alfie Davis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Alexander Shabliy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1787 to 1698, a 89-point edge.
Alfie Davis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Shabliy finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Alfie Davis 45%.
Alexander Shabliy and Alfie Davis share 2 common opponents: Usman Nurmagomedov and Brent Primus.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.