Alexander Volkanovski vs Aljamain Sterling
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-4-0Record26-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'7"
71″Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Freestyle Fighting GymTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1877
If they lose-12→ 1853
If they win+12→ 1868
If they lose-12→ 1844
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1780 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkanovskiAljamain Sterling
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aljamain Sterling58%
Alexander Volkanovski 42%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 58% favorite over Alexander Volkanovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexander Volkanovski's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1865 vs 1856), separated by just 9 points.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Aljamain Sterling 44%.
Alexander Volkanovski and Aljamain Sterling share 1 common opponent: Brian Ortega.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2021
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2025