Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
28-4-0Record28-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'11"
71″Reach72"
145 lbsWeight161 lbs
Freestyle Fighting Gym· 1729 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamLobo Gym MMA· 1722 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Diego Lopes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1874
If they lose-15→ 1850
If they win+15→ 1797
If they lose-9→ 1773
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkanovskiDiego Lopes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Volkanovski59%
Diego Lopes 41%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 59% favorite over Diego Lopes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1782, a 83-point edge.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Diego Lopes 86%.
Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes share 1 common opponent: Brian Ortega.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2021
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2024