Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

28-4-0Record28-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'11"
71″Reach72"
145 lbsWeight161 lbs
Freestyle Fighting GymTeamLobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Diego Lopes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander VolkanovskiNow 1865
If they win+9→ 1874
If they lose-15→ 1850
Diego LopesNow 1781
If they win+15→ 1796
If they lose-9→ 1772

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.99
Sig. strikes / min
3.83
57%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.56
59%
Strike defense
46%
1.63
Takedown avg.
0.88
16%
Takedown accuracy
50%
69%
Takedown defense
69%
0.20
Submission avg.
1.38

Trajectory

Alexander VolkanovskiDiego Lopes
1700175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (46%)
KO/TKO
12 (43%)
3 (11%)
Submission
12 (43%)
12 (43%)
Decision
4 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Volkanovski60%
Diego Lopes 40%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 60% favorite over Diego Lopes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1781, a 84-point edge.

Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alexander Volkanovski finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Diego Lopes 86%.

Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes share 1 common opponent: Brian Ortega.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

WinDecision (unanimous) · 2021
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
Brian Ortega
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2024