Alexander Volkanovski vs Ilia Topuria
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-4-0Record17-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'8"
71″Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Freestyle Fighting Gym· 1735 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamCliment Club· 1711 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ilia Topuria carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1876
If they lose-13→ 1852
If they win+18→ 1847
If they lose-14→ 1815
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1758 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkanovskiIlia Topuria
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ilia Topuria60%
Alexander Volkanovski 40%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Ilia Topuria a 60% favorite over Alexander Volkanovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexander Volkanovski's way (45%).
Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1829, a 36-point edge.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Ilia Topuria 88%.
Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria share 1 common opponent: Max Holloway.
Alexander Volkanovski carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.