Alexander Yakovlev vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-13-1Record23-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height6'2"
74,0"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Joel Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Alexander Yakovlev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1636
If they lose-9→ 1612
If they win+12→ 1711
If they lose-20→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1705 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander YakovlevJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez92%
Alexander Yakovlev 8%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 92% favorite over Alexander Yakovlev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Joel Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1621, a 78-point edge.
Alexander Yakovlev enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Yakovlev finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.