Alexandre Franca Nogueira vs Shaqueme Rock
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-3Record11-3-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
155 lbsWeight161 lbs
Pequeno TeamTeamMonarchy MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre Franca NogueiraShaqueme Rock
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shaqueme Rock74%
Alexandre Franca Nogueira 26%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shaqueme Rock a 74% favorite over Alexandre Franca Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexandre Franca Nogueira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1641), separated by just 0 points.
Alexandre Franca Nogueira enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Shaqueme Rock enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexandre Franca Nogueira finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Shaqueme Rock 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.