Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-7-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
67"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
American Top TeamTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1608 avg Elo · 9 rated
What's at stake
Joshua Van is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alexandre Pantoja carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1809
If they lose-11→ 1785
If they win+15→ 1832
If they lose-17→ 1800
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1711 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre PantojaJoshua Van
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joshua Van56%
Alexandre Pantoja 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Joshua Van a 56% favorite over Alexandre Pantoja in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Joshua Van holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1817 to 1796, a 21-point edge.
Alexandre Pantoja enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joshua Van enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Joshua Van 61%.
Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van share 1 common opponent: Brandon Royval.
Alexandre Pantoja carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.