Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Alexandre Pantoja53%
Joshua Van 47%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexandre Pantoja a 53% favorite over Joshua Van in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joshua Van's way (47%).
Joshua Van holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1818 to 1798, a 20-point edge.
Alexandre Pantoja enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joshua Van enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Joshua Van 61%.
Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van share 1 common opponent: Brandon Royval.
Alexandre Pantoja carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
30-7-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
67"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
American Top TeamTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1609 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Joshua Van is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alexandre Pantoja carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1811
If they lose-11→ 1787
If they win+15→ 1833
If they lose-17→ 1801
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre PantojaJoshua Van