Alexia Thainara vs Mackenzie Dern
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-1-0Record17-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'4"
67"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Ribas FamilyTeamRVCA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+15→ 1761
If they lose-17→ 1729
If they win+17→ 1752
If they lose-15→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexia ThainaraMackenzie Dern
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alexia Thainara and Mackenzie Dern within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1746 vs 1735), separated by just 11 points.
Alexia Thainara enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Alexia Thainara finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Mackenzie Dern 47%.
Alexia Thainara and Mackenzie Dern share 1 common opponent: Amanda Lemos.
Alexia Thainara carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.