Alexis Davis vs Katlyn Cerminara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-11-0Record18-6-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'9"
68"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Combat Sports AcademyTeamTeam Renzo Gracie
What's at stake
Katlyn Cerminara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alexis Davis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1663
If they lose-10→ 1639
If they win+10→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexis DavisKatlyn Cerminara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Katlyn Cerminara76%
Alexis Davis 24%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Katlyn Cerminara a 76% favorite over Alexis Davis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Katlyn Cerminara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1649, a 64-point edge.
Katlyn Cerminara enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexis Davis finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Katlyn Cerminara 17%.
Alexis Davis and Katlyn Cerminara share 2 common opponents: Viviane Araujo and Jennifer Maia.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.