Combat Edge Intelligence

Ali Bagautinov vs Tim Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record21-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'7"
65,0"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight Club KrepostTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Ali Bagautinov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tim Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ali BagautinovNow 1714
If they win+10→ 1724
If they lose-14→ 1700
Tim ElliottNow 1644
If they win+14→ 1658
If they lose-10→ 1634

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.85
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
42%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.65
52%
Strike defense
58%
2.51
Takedown avg.
3.71
37%
Takedown accuracy
48%
65%
Takedown defense
59%
0.26
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Ali BagautinovTim Elliott
1600165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
5 (23%)
Submission
8 (38%)
11 (50%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Ali Bagautinov60%
Tim Elliott 40%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Ali Bagautinov a 60% favorite over Tim Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Ali Bagautinov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1714 to 1644, a 70-point edge.

Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Ali Bagautinov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.