Ali Bagov vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Christian Leroy Duncan66%
Ali Bagov 34%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Christian Leroy Duncan a 66% favorite over Ali Bagov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1752), separated by just 8 points.
Ali Bagov finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Christian Leroy Duncan 73%.
Christian Leroy Duncan carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
35-13-0Record15-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'2"
69.7"Reach79"
172 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
If they win+16→ 1768
If they lose-16→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagovChristian Leroy Duncan