Ali Bagov vs Khalid Satuev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ali Bagov52%
Khalid Satuev 48%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ali Bagov a 52% favorite over Khalid Satuev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1738), separated by just 6 points.
Khalid Satuev enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ali Bagov finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Khalid Satuev 64%.
Ali Bagov and Khalid Satuev share 1 common opponent: Elias Silvério.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
35-13-0Record14-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height5'10"
69.7"Reach-
172 lbsWeight172 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
If they win+16→ 1754
If they lose-16→ 1722
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagovKhalid Satuev