Alik Lorenz vs Felipe Franco
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record11-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
77"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
MMA LabTeamGalpao da Luta· 1679 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alik LorenzFelipe Franco
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Felipe Franco55%
Alik Lorenz 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Franco a 55% favorite over Alik Lorenz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1640), separated by just 3 points.
Alik Lorenz enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alik Lorenz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Felipe Franco 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.