Combat Edge Intelligence

Alik Lorenz vs Kazuhiro Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record21-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA LabTeamYoshida Dojo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alik LorenzNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
Kazuhiro NakamuraNow 1636
If they win+12→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1624

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.05
TBD
Strike accuracy
39%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
23.80
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.50
TBD
Takedown accuracy
20%
TBD
Takedown defense
43%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alik LorenzKazuhiro Nakamura
1600165020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (88%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
1 (13%)
Submission
3 (14%)
0 (0%)
Decision
13 (62%)

Combat Edge model read

Alik Lorenz89%
Kazuhiro Nakamura 11%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alik Lorenz a 89% favorite over Kazuhiro Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1636), separated by just 1 points.

Alik Lorenz enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alik Lorenz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kazuhiro Nakamura 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.