Alik Lorenz vs Kazuhiro Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record21-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA LabTeamYoshida Dojo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
If they win+12→ 1650
If they lose-12→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alik LorenzKazuhiro Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alik Lorenz57%
Kazuhiro Nakamura 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alik Lorenz a 57% favorite over Kazuhiro Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kazuhiro Nakamura's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1638), separated by just 1 points.
Alik Lorenz enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alik Lorenz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kazuhiro Nakamura 38%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.