Alik Lorenz vs Mahamed Aly
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record5-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
MMA LabTeamOne Way Martial Arts
What's at stake
Alik Lorenz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Mahamed Aly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1651
If they lose-19→ 1619
If they win+29→ 1597
If they lose-19→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alik LorenzMahamed Aly
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alik Lorenz53%
Mahamed Aly 47%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Alik Lorenz a 53% favorite over Mahamed Aly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Alik Lorenz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1638 to 1568, a 70-point edge.
Alik Lorenz enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alik Lorenz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mahamed Aly 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.