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Combat Edge Intelligence

Alik Lorenz vs Mahamed Aly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record5-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
MMA LabTeamOne Way Martial Arts

What's at stake

Alik Lorenz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Mahamed Aly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alik LorenzNow 1637
If they win+13→ 1650
If they lose-19→ 1618
Mahamed AlyNow 1567
If they win+29→ 1596
If they lose-19→ 1548

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
Not available
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Alik LorenzMahamed Aly
15501600165020252026

Win method breakdown

7 (88%)
KO/TKO
4 (80%)
1 (13%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Alik Lorenz54%
Mahamed Aly 46%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Alik Lorenz a 54% favorite over Mahamed Aly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Alik Lorenz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1567, a 70-point edge.

Alik Lorenz enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alik Lorenz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mahamed Aly 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.