Alistair Overeem vs Fabrício Werdum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record24-10-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach45,0"
256 lbsWeight246 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamWerdum Combat Team
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alistair Overeem carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1773
If they lose-11→ 1749
If they win+11→ 1814
If they lose-13→ 1790
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemFabrício Werdum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrício Werdum54%
Alistair Overeem 46%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 54% favorite over Alistair Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1803 to 1760, a 43-point edge.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Fabrício Werdum 75%.
Alistair Overeem and Fabrício Werdum share 3 common opponents: Alexander Volkov, Walt Harris and Aleksei Oleinik.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.