Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik within a point of even.
Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1704, a 61-point edge.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 87%.
Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik share 4 common opponents: Alexander Volkov, Augusto Sakai, Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record15-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
TBDReach 78"
256 lbsWeight259 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jairzinho Rozenstruik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1775
If they lose-14→ 1751
If they win+19→ 1723
If they lose-13→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemJairzinho Rozenstruik