Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record15-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
TBDReach 78"
256 lbsWeight259 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jairzinho Rozenstruik carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1770
If they lose-14→ 1746
If they win+19→ 1722
If they lose-13→ 1690
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemJairzinho Rozenstruik
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jairzinho Rozenstruik54%
Alistair Overeem 46%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Jairzinho Rozenstruik a 54% favorite over Alistair Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alistair Overeem's way (42%).
Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1703, a 57-point edge.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 87%.
Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik share 4 common opponents: Alexander Volkov, Augusto Sakai, Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.