Combat Edge Model · Full card

Raf Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs Weidman predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on Raf Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs Weidman (November 14, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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14Total bouts

14Frozen forecasts

4Close matchups

1Model / Elo splits

6Strong model leans

OpenPicks close at start

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Main card predictions

14 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

light heavyweight crossover championshipv0.8-2026-10-04

Khamzat Chimaev15-1-0

Chris Weidman16-8-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

94%Khamzat Chimaev7%Chris Weidman

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 67% / 33%

catchweight crossoverv0.8-2026-10-04

Arman Tsarukyan24-3-0

Neiman Gracie13-6-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

91%Arman Tsarukyan9%Neiman Gracie

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 76% / 24%

welterweight crossoverv0.8-2026-10-04

Zabit Magomedsharipov18-1-0

Giga Chikadze15-7-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

87%Zabit Magomedsharipov14%Giga Chikadze

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 65% / 35%

light heavyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Abdulrashid Sadulaev0-0-0

Dauren Kurugliev0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.9%Abdulrashid Sadulaev50.1%Dauren Kurugliev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

cruiserweight championshipv0.8-2026-10-04

Kyle Dake0-0-0

Alp Arslan0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

50.4%Kyle Dake49.6%Alp Arslan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

lightweight crossoverv0.8-2026-10-04

Umar Nurmagomedov20-2-0

Urijah Faber35-11-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

91%Umar Nurmagomedov9%Urijah Faber

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 55% / 45%

middleweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Jordan Burroughs0-0-0

Azamat Nurikov0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

50.5%Jordan Burroughs49.5%Azamat Nurikov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

light heavyweight championshipv0.8-2026-10-04

Kyle Frederick Snyder0-0-0

Shamil Erdogan13-0-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

14%Kyle Frederick Snyder87%Shamil Erdogan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 19% / 81%

light heavyweight crossoverv0.8-2026-10-04

Murtaza Talha Ali7-2-0

Osama Elsaidy9-4-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

44%Murtaza Talha Ali56%Osama Elsaidy

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%

middleweight crossoverv0.8-2026-10-04

Diana Avsaragova0-0-0

Julianna Peña11-6-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

39%Diana Avsaragova61%Julianna Peña

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 40% / 60%

catchweight crossoverv0.8-2026-10-04

Merab Dvalishvili21-6-0

Marlon Moraes23-13-1

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

91%Merab Dvalishvili9%Marlon Moraes

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 73% / 27%

cruiserweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Zahid Valencia0-0-0

Khidir Saipudinov0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

47%Zahid Valencia54%Khidir Saipudinov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

women's middleweight championshipv0.8-2026-10-04

Kennedy Blades0-0-0

Bella Mir4-1-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

34%Kennedy Blades66%Bella Mir

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 40% / 60%

crossoverv0.8-2026-10-04

Ali AlQaisi16-8-0

Hamza Kooheji15-4-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

31%Ali AlQaisi69%Hamza Kooheji

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 41% / 59%