Aljamain Sterling vs Calvin Kattar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-5-0Record23-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
71"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamCarlos Neto BJJ
What's at stake
Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Calvin Kattar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1839
If they win+17→ 1714
If they lose-7→ 1690
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aljamain SterlingCalvin Kattar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aljamain Sterling88%
Calvin Kattar 12%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 88% favorite over Calvin Kattar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1697, a 159-point edge.
Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Calvin Kattar 57%.
Aljamain Sterling and Calvin Kattar share 1 common opponent: Youssef Zalal.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.