Aljamain Sterling vs Renan Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
26-5-0Record34-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamPitbull Brothers
What's at stake
Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+4→ 1860
If they lose-20→ 1836
If they win+26→ 1624
If they lose-6→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aljamain SterlingRenan Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aljamain Sterling92%
Renan Barão 8%Elo baseline: 82%
The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 92% favorite over Renan Barão in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (82%).
Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1598, a 258-point edge.
Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.
Aljamain Sterling and Renan Barão share 2 common opponents: TJ Dillashaw and T.J. Dillashaw.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
WinTKO (punches) · 2022
LossTKO (punches) · 2015