Combat Edge Intelligence

Aljamain Sterling vs Takeya Mizugaki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-5-0Record23-14-2
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach68,0"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamHakkei Gym

What's at stake

Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Takeya Mizugaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aljamain SterlingNow 1856
If they win+5→ 1861
If they lose-19→ 1837
Takeya MizugakiNow 1608
If they win+19→ 1627
If they lose-5→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
53%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
60%
Strike defense
58%
2.45
Takedown avg.
1.46
31%
Takedown accuracy
58%
45%
Takedown defense
70%
0.64
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Aljamain SterlingTakeya Mizugaki
1600170018002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
8 (32%)
Submission
1 (4%)
14 (56%)
Decision
17 (74%)

Combat Edge model read

Aljamain Sterling90%
Takeya Mizugaki 10%Elo baseline: 81%

The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 90% favorite over Takeya Mizugaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).

Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1608, a 248-point edge.

Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.

Aljamain Sterling carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.