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Combat Edge Intelligence

Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record17-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Allan NascimentoNow 1684
If they win+15→ 1699
If they lose-17→ 1667
Jafel FilhoNow 1670
If they win+17→ 1687
If they lose-15→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.06
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
56%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.62
52%
Strike defense
50%
1.26
Takedown avg.
2.52
23%
Takedown accuracy
45%
38%
Takedown defense
67%
1.05
Submission avg.
2.24

Trajectory

Allan NascimentoJafel Filho
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
15 (68%)
Submission
11 (65%)
5 (23%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Allan Nascimento54%
Jafel Filho 46%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Allan Nascimento a 54% favorite over Jafel Filho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1684 vs 1670), separated by just 14 points.

Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jafel Filho 94%.

Allan Nascimento and Jafel Filho share 1 common opponent: Cody Durden.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

WinSubmission · 2025
Cody Durden
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2026