Combat Edge Intelligence

Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record14-1-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight128 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Rafael Estevam is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Allan Nascimento carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Allan NascimentoNow 1683
If they win+18→ 1701
If they lose-14→ 1669
Rafael EstevamNow 1725
If they win+14→ 1739
If they lose-18→ 1707

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.06
Sig. strikes / min
2.10
56%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
52%
Strike defense
47%
1.26
Takedown avg.
6.01
23%
Takedown accuracy
39%
38%
Takedown defense
67%
1.05
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Allan NascimentoRafael Estevam
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
15 (68%)
Submission
3 (21%)
5 (23%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Estevam60%
Allan Nascimento 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Estevam a 60% favorite over Allan Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Rafael Estevam holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1683, a 42-point edge.

Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.