Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam

Nov 1, 2025 · ESPN+

DateNov 1, 2025

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueUFC APEX

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 1, 2025 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sat 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Allan NascimentoPuro Osso |22-7-0Allan Nascimento vs Rafael EstevamRafael EstevamMacapa |14-1-0

Allan NascimentoPuro Osso22-7-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

22-7-0Record14-1-0

35Age30

5'9"Height5'8"

69"Reach69"

125 lbsWeight128 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Rafael EstevamMacapa14-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Rafael Estevam owns a 51-point Elo edge (good). Rafael Estevam shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Allan Nascimento and Rafael Estevam across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Allan NascimentoRafael Estevam

Recent form

Allan NascimentoL W W W W · +58 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Rafael EstevamL W W W W · +26 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Allan Nascimento1684-15 last move

Rafael Estevam1735-24 last move

Why they are ranked here

Allan Nascimento#39 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1684 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Carlos Hernandez (rated 1668 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Yuki Motoya (rated 1567 at the time): -16.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +58 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #38 Jesus Aguilar, 4 ahead of #40 Jarred Brooks.

Rafael Estevam#29 of 316 active Bantamweight fighters · 1735 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Erick Visconde (rated 1619 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ethyn Ewing (rated 1663 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +26 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #28 Luciano Pereira, 2 ahead of #30 Kai Asakura.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Allan NascimentoNow 1684 · #39 Flyweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1702

Loses by decision-14→ 1670

Rafael EstevamNow 1735 · #29 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1749

Loses by decision-18→ 1717

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Allan NascimentovsRafael Estevam

Takedown average

1.26vs6.01

Submission average

1.05vs0.29

Takedown defense

38%vs67%

Takedown accuracy

23%vs39%

Finishing profile

Allan Nascimentosubmission leads 68% of wins

Rafael Estevamdecision leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Allan NascimentoRafael Estevam

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.06Sig. strikes landed per min2.10

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

56Sig. strike accuracy54

UFC flyweight average : 44%

2.53Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.59

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

52Sig. strike defense47

UFC flyweight average : 55%

1.26Takedown average6.01

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

23Takedown accuracy39

UFC flyweight average : 26%

38Takedown defense67

UFC flyweight average : 57%

1.05Submission average0.29

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

2Wins by knockout4

15Wins by submission3

5Wins by decision7

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

7Losses by decision0

Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : GARCIA VS ONAMA. Allan Nascimento enters with a 22-7-0 record and Rafael Estevam enters with a 14-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.