Alvaro Herrera vs Zach Zane
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-7-0Record15-15-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
74,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamMaui Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1537
If they lose-16→ 1505
If they win+12→ 1534
If they lose-12→ 1510
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1610 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alvaro HerreraZach Zane
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alvaro Herrera60%
Zach Zane 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alvaro Herrera a 60% favorite over Zach Zane in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Zach Zane's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1522), separated by just 1 points.
Alvaro Herrera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Zach Zane enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Alvaro Herrera finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Zach Zane 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.