Alvin Welch vs Diego Esteche
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record1-0-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'6"
-Reach-
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1559
If they lose-24→ 1511
If they win+24→ 1557
If they lose-24→ 1509
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alvin WelchDiego Esteche
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alvin Welch56%
Diego Esteche 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alvin Welch a 56% favorite over Diego Esteche in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1535 vs 1533), separated by just 2 points.
Alvin Welch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alvin Welch finishes 50% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.