Alvin Welch vs Erfan Ahangarian
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record6-1-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'7"
-Reach68"
126 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
Erfan Ahangarian is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Alvin Welch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1564
If they lose-19→ 1516
If they win+19→ 1635
If they lose-29→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1490 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alvin WelchErfan Ahangarian
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Erfan Ahangarian73%
Alvin Welch 27%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Erfan Ahangarian a 73% favorite over Alvin Welch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Erfan Ahangarian holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1535, a 81-point edge.
Alvin Welch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Erfan Ahangarian enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Alvin Welch finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Erfan Ahangarian 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.