Amanda Ribas vs Paige VanZant
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-7-0Record8-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
66"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Marcelo Ribas TeamTeamGracie Barra Portland
What's at stake
Amanda Ribas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Paige VanZant carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1630
If they lose-18→ 1598
If they win+18→ 1592
If they lose-14→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Amanda RibasPaige VanZant
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Amanda Ribas60%
Paige VanZant 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Amanda Ribas a 60% favorite over Paige VanZant in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Amanda Ribas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1574, a 42-point edge.
Amanda Ribas enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Amanda Ribas finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Paige VanZant 63%.
Amanda Ribas and Paige VanZant share 1 common opponent: Rose Namajunas.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.