Combat Edge Intelligence

Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record10-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70.5"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Elite Training CenterTeamNew England Cartel

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ananias MulumbaNow 1644
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628
Tom PagliaruloNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Ananias MulumbaTom Pagliarulo
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (80%)
5 (50%)
Submission
1 (10%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Ananias Mulumba59%
Tom Pagliarulo 41%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Ananias Mulumba a 59% favorite over Tom Pagliarulo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tom Pagliarulo's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1652), separated by just 8 points.

Tom Pagliarulo enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Ananias Mulumba finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tom Pagliarulo 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.