Anastasia Nikolakakos vs Tatsumitsu Wada
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Tatsumitsu Wada52%
Anastasia Nikolakakos 48%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Tatsumitsu Wada a 52% favorite over Anastasia Nikolakakos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Anastasia Nikolakakos's way (47%).
Anastasia Nikolakakos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1667 to 1645, a 22-point edge.
Anastasia Nikolakakos enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Anastasia Nikolakakos finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tatsumitsu Wada 38%.
Tatsumitsu Wada carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-0-0Record26-14-2
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'0"Height5'7"
60"Reach69.3"
114 lbsWeight135 lbs
Gracie Humaita-BoltonTeamFreelance· 1571 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Anastasia Nikolakakos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Tatsumitsu Wada carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1689
If they lose-26→ 1641
If they win+13→ 1658
If they lose-11→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Anastasia NikolakakosTatsumitsu Wada