Anatolij Baal vs Patrik Šebek
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-1Record4-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'2"
-Reach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Club Gelsenkirchen· 1574 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Patrik Šebek is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Anatolij Baal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1564
If they lose-15→ 1532
If they win+23→ 1588
If they lose-25→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Anatolij BaalPatrik Šebek
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anatolij Baal51%
Patrik Šebek 49%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Anatolij Baal a 51% favorite over Patrik Šebek in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Patrik Šebek's way (47%).
Patrik Šebek holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1565 to 1547, a 18-point edge.
Anatolij Baal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Anatolij Baal finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Patrik Šebek 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.