Combat Edge Intelligence

Andre Gusmao vs Luke Fernandez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record6-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReach76"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamDante Rivera BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andre GusmaoNow 1610
If they win+24→ 1634
If they lose-24→ 1586
Luke FernandezNow 1612
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1559 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.79
Sig. strikes / min
32
44%
Strike accuracy
100%
3.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0
61%
Strike defense
100%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
60%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andre GusmaoLuke Fernandez
155016001650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (67%)
KO/TKO
5 (83%)
1 (17%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (17%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Fernandez70%
Andre Gusmao 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 70% favorite over Andre Gusmao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1612), separated by just 2 points.

Andre Gusmao finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Luke Fernandez 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.