Andrea Lee vs Ashley Thiner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-11-0Record3-0-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'8"
69"Reach65.5"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Karate MafiaTeamThree Kings Muay Thai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1594
If they lose-16→ 1562
If they win+24→ 1604
If they lose-24→ 1556
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrea LeeAshley Thiner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Thiner88%
Andrea Lee 12%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Thiner a 88% favorite over Andrea Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1578 vs 1580), separated by just 2 points.
Andrea Lee enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Ashley Thiner enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Andrea Lee finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Ashley Thiner 67%.
Andrea Lee carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.