Andrea Lee vs Ernesta Kareckaite
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-11-0Record6-2-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'9"
69"Reach 71"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1593
If they lose-16→ 1561
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-16→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1636 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andrea LeeErnesta Kareckaite
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ernesta Kareckaite81%
Andrea Lee 19%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ernesta Kareckaite a 81% favorite over Andrea Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1577 vs 1582), separated by just 5 points.
Andrea Lee enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Andrea Lee finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Ernesta Kareckaite 33%.
Ernesta Kareckaite carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.