Andreas Gustafsson vs Jake Ellenberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-0Record31-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'9"
73"Reach39,5"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Vasteras Fight ClubTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651
If they win+12→ 1677
If they lose-12→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1578 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andreas GustafssonJake Ellenberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Andreas Gustafsson72%
Jake Ellenberger 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Andreas Gustafsson a 72% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1667 vs 1665), separated by just 2 points.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andreas Gustafsson finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Jake Ellenberger 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.